Iowa polls show Kim Reynolds’ lead over Deidre DeGeer widens in the governor’s race

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Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds leads Democratic challenger Deirdre DeGeer by 17 percentage points with less than four months until the November election.

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll found that 48% of likely midterm voters support Reynolds versus 31% who support DeJear. Five percent of Libertarians support Rick Stewart.

Another 5% say they will vote for someone else, while 2% say they will not vote, and 9% say they are not sure.

poll, the first since Reynolds. Officially announced his candidacy on March 9.An Iowa poll conducted from February 28 to March 2 shows him with a double-digit lead. The two candidates were separated by just 8 percentage points: Reynolds received 51% to De Geer’s 43%.

In the new poll, Reynolds’ vote dropped by 3 percentage points, while de Geer’s vote dropped by 12 percentage points.

More: ‘Fired Up’: Kim Reynolds Launches Re-election Bid With Millions in Cash, Leads in Iowa Polls

Stewart received 5% of the Democratic vote in the poll and 10% of the independent vote. He gets only 1% of the Republican vote.

Reynolds also has strong support within his own party. He has the support of 91% of Republican voters, while DeJear has the support of 78% of Democrats – lower than Democratic Senate candidate Mike Franken, who has 88% of Democrats in the poll.

Reynolds leads de Geer among nonpartisan voters by a 37% to 28% margin.

More: ‘Remember what we’re capable of, Iowa’: Deirdre DeGeer details vision in governor’s race

But the poll also shows an increase in likely voters who say they are not sure which candidate they will vote for – up from 5% in the previous poll to 9%.

“There’s still some fluidity in this race,” said pollster JN Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll.

Selzer & Company surveyed 811 Iowa adults, including 597 likely voters. Questions based on all Iowans have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, while questions based on a sample of likely voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Reynolds’ job approval rating is above 50%

Reynolds Replaced former Governor Terry Branstad as Governor in May 2017 And Elected to his first full term. In 2018 The pool comes as it has given de Geer a significant financial windfall. By the end of the campaign finance reporting period on May 14, Reynolds had 13 times more cash than De Geer. – reporting nearly $5 million to De Geer’s roughly $380,000. A new round of fundraising reports will be published this week.

In addition to his lead in the governor’s race, the poll found that Reynolds’ approval rating is back up. Overall, 52% of Iowans approve of how she is handling her job, and 44% disapprove. In March, only 49 percent of Evans approved of the job she was doing.

Poll respondent Carla Kelly, a 45-year-old daycare provider from Ossian who is an independent, said she voted for Reynolds in 2018 and plans to vote for him again this year. Kelly said she feels like day care providers are “finally being recognized” and credited some of Reynolds’ childcare initiatives. And, he said, he believes Reynolds has led well during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“I think he handled COVID very well, all things considered,” he said.

But poll respondent Ed Dewehr, a Democrat and a 66-year-old retired truck driver who lives in Shell Rock, said he doesn’t approve of Reynolds’ politics and currently has “anyone” in the race. Considering They are among the 5 percent of Democrats who plan to vote but say they are not sure who they will vote for.

Although he said it’s unlikely he’ll vote for a third party, he’s not ready to vote for de Geer until he knows more about him.

“It’s one way. I’m still trying to decide,” he said. “I don’t really know enough about it one way or the other.”

Overall, 88 percent of Republicans approved of Reynolds’ job performance compared to just 10 percent of Democrats. Independents are almost evenly split, with 46% approving and 47% disapproving.

De Geer has some power among potential voters. He leads among those under 35, 35 to 34 percent. those with no religious affiliation, 45% to 19%; union households, 42% to 33%; those who live in cities, 40% to 35%; and those living in the suburbs, 39% to 38%. But with the exception of city dwellers, they are a relatively small group.

Among the groups of likely voters where Reynolds increased his largest margin: men, 56% to 25%; 35 to 54-year-olds, 51 percent to 27 percent; those without a college degree, 53% to 24%; Protestants, 58% to 26%; evangelicals, 75% to 16%; those who live in cities, 54% to 24%; those who live in rural areas, 66% to 23%; and those who live in the heavily Republican 4th Congressional District, centered in northwest Iowa, 53% to 20%.

Iowa Poll:: Voters prefer Republicans in 3 out of 4 districts – except the 3rd District

Most Iowans believe the state is on the ‘wrong track’ rather than the ‘right direction’

While Reynolds’ job rating has improved, more Iowans say the state is headed in the wrong direction rather than the right one, the poll found. Forty-six percent of Iowans say the state is headed in the wrong direction versus 42 percent who think it’s headed in the right direction — the first time the metric has gone underwater. From September 2020.

More than three-quarters of Republicans, 76%, say things are on the right track, versus just 10% of Democrats and 33% of independents.

Poll respondent Alison Griffin, an independent and 25-year-old middle school teacher from Johnston, said she was dissatisfied with Reynolds’ handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Push to court to reinstate previously blocked state law. which may prohibit abortions as early as six weeks with certain exceptions.

Griffin plans to vote for DeGeer in the fall, saying she represents his values ​​on issues like abortion rights.

“I think there’s going to be a huge generational shift in the elections this year and the next two years, where the opinions and beliefs of many young people in our country are finally being prioritized,” he said. will go.” . “And I feel like his platform aligns with a lot of the beliefs that I have.”

Respondent David Spadell, a Republican and 72-year-old water well contractor from Winton, said he disagreed with Reynolds’ push to limit abortion but largely agreed with him on economic issues. including His decision to reduce the number of weeks Iowans can receive unemployment benefits..

Spiedel said he believes the state is on the right track and plans to vote for Reynolds.

“I don’t agree with this Roe v. Wade decision at all, so I’m disappointed in it and the Republicans in that regard,” he said. “But as far as the economy and gun rights, I think he’s done a good job.”

About polls

The July 10-13, 2022 Iowa poll for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines is based on telephone interviews with 811 Iowans age 18 and older. Interviewers with Quantile Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers provided by Dynata. Interviews were conducted in English. Responses were adjusted for age, sex, and congressional district to reflect the general population, based on estimates from the most recent American Community Survey.

The questions, based on a sample of 811 Iowa adults, have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. The questions, based on a subsample of 597 likely voters in the 2022 general election, have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points. This means that if the survey were repeated 19 out of 20 times, using the same questions and the same methodology, the results would be no more than plus or minus 3.4 percentage points or 4.0 percentage points, respectively. Results based on small samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a large margin of error.

Copyright Iowa Pool Register and republish without credit to Mediacom.

Ian Richardson covers the Iowa State House for the Des Moines Register. Reach him at irichardson@registermedia.com, at 515-284-8254, or on Twitter. @DMRIanR.

This article originally appeared on the Des Moines Register: Iowa Poll: Kim Reynolds Leads Deirdre DeGeorge in Governor’s Race