Depending on the scenario, the population of Greater Victoria could be 485,000 by 2041.

The estimate comes from data released by Statistics Canada in early September that spells out population projections up to 2041. As of the 2021 census, the Victoria Census Metropolitan Area had a population of 397,237 people. The projected figure of 485,000—a projected increase of 22 percent within two decades—represents one of three possible scenarios, namely, the high immigration scenario.

Two other scenarios also describe significant but smaller increases. Under the low immigration scenario, Victoria CMA will reach a population of 457,000 by 2041. The reference scenario – which serves as the starting point for both the high and low scenarios – projects a future population of 473,000. Overall, the estimates indicate immigration—rather than fertility—is the primary source of population growth.

Although these projections do not indicate where these additional people will reside within Greater Victoria, they clearly point to additional growth in the region with all the benefits of economic growth and greater social in the region’s lower fertility. will be in the form of energy. And most heavily the age pyramid but also disorders in the form of environmental influences, infrastructural stress and sociopathology.

That said, a 22 percent increase over two decades would represent a gentle slope. By comparison and contrast, Langford’s population grew by about 32% between 2016 and 2021.

Projections also predict that Greater Victoria will become a more diverse place. Using a high immigration scenario, StatCan predicts that 125,000 residents will belong to ethnic groups by 2041 – just under 26 percent of the future population. In 2016, about 14 per cent of the population in Greater Victoria fell into the minority category.

This category includes individuals who belong to one of the visible minority groups as defined by the Employment Equity Act, which defines visible minorities as “persons, other than tribal people, who by race are non-Caucasian or non-white in color.” According to StatCan, South Asians, Chinese, Blacks, Filipinos, Latin Americans, Arabs, Southeast Asians, West Asians, Koreans and Japanese are significant visible minority populations.

Greater Victoria, in other words, will become more diverse as it grows. That said, the trend toward diversity will be greater in other communities. Nine CMAs in British Columbia, including Vancouver and Abbotsford-Mission, would be more diverse than the country as a whole and Victoria is well below the expected national rate, but ahead of Kelowna, the rest of the CMAs in British Columbia.

Overall, StatCan predicts that Canada’s population will reach 47.7 million in 2041 under the baseline and about 50 million under the high immigration scenario. British Columbia’s population would exceed 7 million under the high immigration scenario.

Regardless of the scenario, Canada will become a more diverse country. Demographers predict that almost half of Canada’s population will consist of immigrants and their Canadian-born children. About one in four will be born in Asia or Africa and two in five Canadians will be of ethnic origin.

Immigrants will continue to be concentrated in Canada’s three largest metropolitan areas (from east to west Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver) and StatCan predicts that four out of five Torontonians will be foreign-born or immigrants. Must have been born to parents.


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wolfgang.depner@peninsulanewsreview.com

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