In a survey, the CBOS examined party preferences and voters among voters who are already eligible to vote between the ages of 18 and 24. In the CBOS study, it uses data from both the last two decades and 2021.
It was noted that although in the last two decades young police, in fact and publicly, were less likely to run in parliamentary elections, the state changed after 2020, when it participated in the democratic process of electing deputies and senators. Between 2019 and 2020, the turnout announced by the youngest voters increased by 10 percentage points (67 to 77 per cent), while all voters had 3 points. (76 to 79 percent).
“The year 2021 has further unprecedented political mobilization of the younger generation: from January to September 2021, the average declared voter turnout was higher among the youth than all respondents (74.55% as against 75.66, respectively). Beginning of the year, January From March 2021 – At that time, the desire to participate in elections was 4-5 percentage points higher than the average among the youth. It decreased, it will increase again in September “- CBOS reported. As noted, the declared turnout among the youth at that time was 83% and among the general public 77%.
The CBOS emphasizes that what currently distinguishes young voters from the rest is certainly the lack of support from the ruling party – PIS and the greater sympathy with the Left and the Confederation, as well as 2050. Till then, the average turnout in Poland is slightly higher than the average turnout.
According to the CBOS, the desire to be politically active at the highest level in 2021 and to participate in the elections does not mean that all young people have clearly defined party sympathy by choosing to vote. Note that a large proportion of young poles – 25.8% on average. Among all respondents against 18.3% – do not know who to vote for, or avoid vague announcements on the issue.
“What would Parliament be like if in 2021 it was decided only by young voters, people between the ages of 18 and 24? First of all, it should be noted that this will not be a bipolar system. The party priorities of the youth are ours. Far more diverse than the observation. In all the announced participants of the election. Looking at the average announcements for the 9 months of 2021, it can be concluded that young people relatively often supported the Poland 2050 (17) of Season Hovania. , But Levika is slightly less supportive (14%) and Confederation of YN (14%), and KO (13%) “- CBOS reports.
As noted, PIS has the lowest number of supporters in this age group – 8, ie four times less than the total number of respondents, while among the youth the two main opposition groups O and Poland averaged 2050. The support is similar for the general population
“On the other hand, the Left and the Confederation of YN are groups that can be described as youth groups – the average support for these parties or party blocs is from a group of respondents over the age of 24 over eight months. Is three times higher than 2021 “- indicates CBOS. When it comes to PSL, young voters have fewer supporters than ordinary voters, while cookies receive slightly more support from 15 young respondents.
According to the CBOS, left-wing voters are more likely to vote than young women (18) and young men (10). Announcements of support for this bloc in elections are more common among young people, the bigger the city they live in. Support for this bloc is largely driven by left-wing political beliefs as well as non-participation in religious practices.
As noted, the Confederation is primarily a youth choice: the party has 22% support. Men aged 18 to 24 and 4%. Young women. According to respondents, this young man is the most important right-wing party. 39% are ready to vote for this party. Right-wing lawyers between the ages of 18 and 24. Empathy for this formation is also clearly favored by most religious practices and – not too much – living in cities, though not the largest.
Young women are ready to vote for Poland by 2050, compared to young men (21% and 14%, respectively). The party’s support among the youth as well as the general public is clearly favored by higher education, living in major parties, centrist (24) or left (18) political ideologies.
According to the CBOS report, “The young voters of the Citizens’ Alliance make little difference in terms of gender – similarly, young women (12) and young men (14) are ready to vote for KO. ” As noted, KO support among young people grows with education, but “however, these relationships are not strong.” Young people from the largest parties are more likely to vote for the party than in small towns and villages. Unlike in Poland in 2050, voting for the KO is mostly announced by left-wingers rather than centrist political ideologies (18% and 13% of these groups, respectively).
KO has very little support among right-wing supporters (6). By 2050, Poland’s supporters have been a little more vocal about young right-wing voters (12).
Women, as well as people living in rural areas, wanted to vote for PIS and its affiliated parties a little more than men. “However, the key factor in determining empathy for governance is participation in religious practices among the youngest voters.
“Political ideologies are less important in this regard. Only 18% of young people who declare right-wing political ideologies want to vote for PIS.”
In any case, if the parliament was already formed by the youngest voters (18-24 years old) who want to vote and know who they will support, then the problem is our scene. Will not be bipolar (…), but the emergence of a permanent parliamentary majority will have a slight advantage over the largest number of votes among young people – Poland 2050 – Confederation, Left and Civic Alliance, which won similar votes. Kay, “CBOS note.
He maintains that Poland’s average performance in 2050 may be a bit “exaggerated”, as the party’s support has plummeted since the return of PO leader Donald Tusk to active policy – in June 2021. ۔
As the CBOS noted, the analysis was based on a monthly survey of party preferences. “Current Issues and Events” was researched from January 2001 to September 2021.